Wednesday, 20 February 2008

Almost scared to believe Barack can do it

Great news for those of us who think Barack Obama is a strong voice for change in the USA and subsequently the rest of the world. He has won Hawaii, as expected - being born there, with 76% of the vote. The greater excitement is that he also won Wisconsin, beating Clinton by 58% to 41%. According to the BBC he now has 1319 delegates to Hilary's 1245, these being delegates won in elections and not "Superdelegates".

It is also cheering that barack has made great inroads in the traditional "lunch pail" working class Democrats and polled equally with Hilary amongst white women, both traditional heartland voters for Hilary. As usual he ran away with the youth vote and, according to exit polls, 6 out of 10 "Independent" voters backed Barack. This Wisconsin win is even more astonishing given that according to polls Hilary was ahead just a week ago, Barack certainly seems to have the "Big Mo".

The campaigns have moved on to Texas and Ohio where Hilary has to win at least one to truly stay in contention. She had been holding a huge lead in Texas, with it's high proportion of Hispanic voters - normally a strong Clinton constituency, but the latest poll shows Clinton on 50% and Obama on 48%. With the margin of error this means that at the moment it is a statistical dead heat.

In the latest Ohio polls the Clinton lead as dropped from it's highest of 29% to 9%.

Recent US wide polls have suggested that Obama would beat McCain but Clinton would lose to him.

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